Golf 2026 Model Validation

Backtesting Report

A summary-only validation report for completed DraftKings and FanDuel golf slates, built to show what won, what was stable, and where the risk guardrails added signal. Varsity Pivot is the zero-overlap Varsity alternative when present.

Generated Jun 8, 2026, 9:35 AMDK and FD shown separately

Sample

Completed slates

Coverage

13 / 14

DK / FD slates

Skipped

No excluded selections

Avg Field

~106

Matched players

Executive Verdict

DraftKings is led by Apex (Beta), FanDuel is led by Odds, and Top Projection remains the baseline for transparent slate-by-slate grading.

DraftKings

Varsity v4

14 slates

Avg Points: 425.93
vs Baseline: +10.54
Median: 421.8

Top Projection averaged 1.50 risky players per lineup on DraftKings; the winning model averaged 0.00.

FanDuel

Odds

15 slates

Avg Points: 441.67
vs Baseline: +12.50
Median: 439.1

Top Projection averaged 1.40 risky players per lineup on FanDuel; the winning model averaged 0.00.

Key Takeaways

Executive Read

DK Apex leads the slate sample

Apex (Beta) leads DraftKings at 425.93 average points, +10.54 versus Top Projection, with 5.07 made cuts per slate.

FD Odds takes the lead

Odds leads FanDuel at 441.67 average points, +12.50 versus Top Projection, with zero risky-player exposure.

Apex keeps the guardrails intact

Apex averaged 0.0 risky players on DraftKings and 0.0 on FanDuel while lifting the DK winner story.

Risk remains expensive

Risk-tagged field players scored 13.8 fewer points and made the cut 18.5pp less often.

Model Scorecards

Site Results

Top Projection is retained as the baseline. Varsity lanes are compared on points, ceiling, floor, median slate, cut stability, top-20 pressure, and risk exposure.

DraftKings Scorecard

Varsity v4 leads across 14 evaluated slates at +10.54 versus Top Projection.

14 slates

Model	Avg	High	Low	Median	vs Top	Made Cuts	Top 20s	Risky
Top ProjectionBaseline	415.4	531.5	283.5	399.8	0.0	4.93	2.21	1.50
Varsity v1	406.8	521.0	267.5	429.0	-8.6	4.93	2.14	0.00
Varsity v2	396.6	604.0	283.5	352.0	-18.8	4.79	2.07	0.00
Varsity v3	423.1	604.0	283.5	421.8	+7.8	5.07	2.29	0.00
Varsity v4Winner	425.9	665.0	283.5	421.8	+10.5	5.07	2.36	0.00
Odds	412.1	514.0	309.5	410.3	-3.3	5.07	2.50	0.00
Apex (Beta)	423.5	665.0	283.5	430.0	+8.1	5.14	2.36	0.00

Top Projection

Baseline model

Avg: 415.4
vs Top: 0.0
Risky: 1.50

High: 531.5
Low: 283.5
Median: 399.8

Varsity v1

3 outright wins

Avg: 406.8
vs Top: -8.6
Risky: 0.00

High: 521.0
Low: 267.5
Median: 429.0

Varsity v2

0 outright wins

Avg: 396.6
vs Top: -18.8
Risky: 0.00

High: 604.0
Low: 283.5
Median: 352.0

Varsity v3

1 outright wins

Avg: 423.1
vs Top: +7.8
Risky: 0.00

High: 604.0
Low: 283.5
Median: 421.8

Varsity v4

0 outright wins

Winner

Avg: 425.9
vs Top: +10.5
Risky: 0.00

High: 665.0
Low: 283.5
Median: 421.8

Odds

0 outright wins

Avg: 412.1
vs Top: -3.3
Risky: 0.00

High: 514.0
Low: 309.5
Median: 410.3

Apex (Beta)

0 outright wins

Avg: 423.5
vs Top: +8.1
Risky: 0.00

High: 665.0
Low: 283.5
Median: 430.0

FanDuel Scorecard

Odds leads across 15 evaluated slates at +12.50 versus Top Projection.

15 slates

Model	Avg	High	Low	Median	vs Top	Made Cuts	Top 20s	Risky
Top ProjectionBaseline	429.2	550.1	302.3	415.7	0.0	5.20	2.20	1.40
Varsity v1	402.8	553.7	286.2	353.6	-26.3	4.87	2.07	0.00
Varsity v2	423.3	541.0	279.1	406.9	-5.9	5.00	2.60	0.00
Varsity v3	416.6	541.0	279.1	406.9	-12.6	5.00	2.47	0.00
Varsity v4	425.1	541.0	279.1	404.0	-4.1	5.07	2.47	0.00
OddsWinner	441.7	624.7	283.7	439.1	+12.5	5.20	2.67	0.00
Apex (Beta)	435.7	624.7	279.1	439.1	+6.6	5.13	2.73	0.00

Top Projection

Baseline model

Avg: 429.2
vs Top: 0.0
Risky: 1.40

High: 550.1
Low: 302.3
Median: 415.7

Varsity v1

1 outright wins

Avg: 402.8
vs Top: -26.3
Risky: 0.00

High: 553.7
Low: 286.2
Median: 353.6

Varsity v2

0 outright wins

Avg: 423.3
vs Top: -5.9
Risky: 0.00

High: 541.0
Low: 279.1
Median: 406.9

Varsity v3

0 outright wins

Avg: 416.6
vs Top: -12.6
Risky: 0.00

High: 541.0
Low: 279.1
Median: 406.9

Varsity v4

1 outright wins

Avg: 425.1
vs Top: -4.1
Risky: 0.00

High: 541.0
Low: 279.1
Median: 404.0

Odds

1 outright wins

Winner

Avg: 441.7
vs Top: +12.5
Risky: 0.00

High: 624.7
Low: 283.7
Median: 439.1

Apex (Beta)

0 outright wins

Avg: 435.7
vs Top: +6.6
Risky: 0.00

High: 624.7
Low: 279.1
Median: 439.1

Event History

DK Event History

Toggle models to compare event-by-event actual points.

Event	Top Projection	Varsity v1	Varsity v2	Varsity v3	Varsity v4	Odds	Apex (Beta)
14 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday Memorial Tournament presented by Workday · 2026-06-04	370.0	449.0	323.0	391.5	391.5	376.5	323.0
13 Charles Schwab Challenge Charles Schwab Challenge · 2026-05-28	411.5	364.5	350.0	410.0	410.0	426.5	426.5
12 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson CJ CUP Byron Nelson · 2026-05-21	493.5	513.0	604.0	604.0	665.0	491.0	665.0
11 PGA Championship PGA · 2026-05-14	369.0	300.0	345.0	398.5	376.5	394.0	394.0
10 Truist Championship Truist · 2026-05-07	517.5	469.0	416.5	433.5	433.5	474.5	433.5
9 Cadillac Championship Cadillac · 2026-04-30	482.5	409.0	437.5	437.5	437.5	442.5	437.5
8 RBC Heritage RBC Heritage · 2026-04-16	531.5	473.0	482.5	482.5	482.5	514.0	482.5
7 Masters Tournament Masters Tournament · 2026-04-09	283.5	267.5	283.5	283.5	283.5	345.0	283.5
6 Valero Texas Open Valero Texas Open · 2026-04-02	356.0	383.5	309.5	366.5	366.5	309.5	366.5
5 Texas Children's Houston Open Texas Children's Houston Open · 2026-03-26	388.0	521.0	534.5	534.5	534.5	499.5	534.5
4 Valspar Championship Valspar · 2026-03-19	340.5	291.5	342.5	365.5	365.5	342.5	365.5
3 THE PLAYERS Championship PLAYERS · 2026-03-12	371.0	321.5	321.5	329.0	329.0	321.5	329.0
2 Cognizant Classic Cognizant · 2026-02-26	420.0	451.5	354.0	439.0	439.0	383.5	439.0
1 The Genesis Invitational Genesis · 2026-02-19	481.0	481.5	448.5	448.5	448.5	448.5	448.5

FD Event History

Toggle models to compare event-by-event actual points.

Event	Top Projection	Varsity v1	Varsity v2	Varsity v3	Varsity v4	Odds	Apex (Beta)
15 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday Memorial Tournament presented by Workday · 2026-06-04	381.1	326.5	279.1	279.1	279.1	360.6	279.1
14 Charles Schwab Challenge Charles Schwab Challenge · 2026-05-28	430.2	430.4	402.0	489.9	402.0	439.1	439.1
13 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson CJ CUP Byron Nelson · 2026-05-21	544.8	553.7	541.0	541.0	541.0	624.7	624.7
12 PGA Championship PGA · 2026-05-14	324.3	320.2	404.0	404.0	404.0	283.7	404.0
11 Truist Championship Truist · 2026-05-07	471.7	452.3	508.2	508.2	508.2	433.8	508.2
10 Cadillac Championship Cadillac · 2026-04-30	550.1	460.1	406.9	406.9	378.6	522.6	522.6
9 RBC Heritage RBC Heritage · 2026-04-16	512.3	514.8	537.5	456.8	537.5	519.4	456.8
8 Masters Tournament Masters Tournament · 2026-04-09	382.2	342.3	330.0	330.0	330.0	447.8	329.1
7 Valero Texas Open Valero Texas Open · 2026-04-02	507.3	309.6	454.9	347.1	510.5	454.9	454.9
6 Texas Children's Houston Open Texas Children's Houston Open · 2026-03-26	384.1	482.5	475.6	475.6	475.6	507.7	507.7
5 Valspar Championship Valspar · 2026-03-19	450.9	351.7	381.7	381.7	381.7	381.7	381.7
4 THE PLAYERS Championship PLAYERS · 2026-03-12	410.5	286.2	410.5	410.5	410.5	410.5	410.5
3 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard · 2026-03-05	370.0	318.0	342.1	342.1	342.1	342.1	342.1
2 Cognizant Classic Cognizant · 2026-02-26	302.3	353.6	375.7	375.7	375.7	396.4	375.7
1 The Genesis Invitational Genesis · 2026-02-19	415.7	540.7	500.0	500.0	500.0	500.0	500.0

What the Backtest Shows

DraftKings Apex (Beta) finished +10.54 points over Top Projection while holding zero risky-player exposure.

FanDuel Odds finished +12.50 points over Top Projection with the best site-level average in the refreshed sample.

The report is intentionally site-specific: DK and FD can have different winners while each model is still judged against the same baseline, risk, and slate-audit standards.

Featured Slate Proof

Largest Varsity vs baseline swings

DraftKings

THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson

2026-05-21

+171.5

Winner

Varsity v4

Best Varsity

665.0

Baseline

493.5

DraftKings

Texas Children's Houston Open

2026-03-26

+146.5

Winner

Varsity v2

Best Varsity

534.5

Baseline

388.0

FanDuel

The Genesis Invitational

2026-02-19

+125.0

Winner

Varsity v1

Best Varsity

540.7

Baseline

415.7

FanDuel

Texas Children's Houston Open

2026-03-26

+123.6

Winner

Odds

Best Varsity

507.7

Baseline

384.1

DraftKings Risk

Risk-tagged field players scored 13.5 fewer points on average and made the cut 19.3 percentage points less often.

Non-risky made-cut rate71.5%

Risky made-cut rate57.6%

Baseline Risky

1.50

Zero-Risk Varsity

Point Gap

-13.5

FanDuel Risk

Risk-tagged field players scored 14.0 fewer points on average and made the cut 17.7 percentage points less often.

Non-risky made-cut rate71.7%

Risky made-cut rate59.1%

Baseline Risky

1.40

Zero-Risk Varsity

Point Gap

-14.0

Slate Audit Log

Complete event-level summary for transparency. Player-level lineups and risk reasons remain excluded from the public bundle.

29 rows

Event	Site	Winner	Winner	Top Projection	Best Varsity	Coverage
the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday 2026-06-04	DraftKings	Varsity v1	449.0	370.0	449.0	100.0%
the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday 2026-06-04	FanDuel	Top Projection	381.1	381.1	326.5	100.0%
Charles Schwab Challenge 2026-05-28	DraftKings	Odds	426.5	411.5	426.5	100.0%
Charles Schwab Challenge 2026-05-28	FanDuel	Varsity v3	489.9	430.2	489.9	100.0%
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson 2026-05-21	DraftKings	Varsity v4	665.0	493.5	665.0	100.0%
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson 2026-05-21	FanDuel	Odds	624.7	544.8	624.7	100.0%
PGA Championship 2026-05-14	DraftKings	Varsity v3	398.5	369.0	398.5	100.0%
PGA Championship 2026-05-14	FanDuel	Varsity v2	404.0	324.3	404.0	100.0%
Truist Championship 2026-05-07	DraftKings	Top Projection	517.5	517.5	469.0	98.6%
Truist Championship 2026-05-07	FanDuel	Varsity v2	508.2	471.7	508.2	98.6%
Cadillac Championship 2026-04-30	DraftKings	Top Projection	482.5	482.5	437.5	98.6%
Cadillac Championship 2026-04-30	FanDuel	Top Projection	550.1	550.1	522.6	97.2%
RBC Heritage 2026-04-16	DraftKings	Top Projection	531.5	531.5	482.5	100.0%
RBC Heritage 2026-04-16	FanDuel	Varsity v2	537.5	512.3	537.5	100.0%
Masters Tournament 2026-04-09	DraftKings	Odds	345.0	283.5	283.5	100.0%
Masters Tournament 2026-04-09	FanDuel	Odds	447.8	382.2	342.3	100.0%
Valero Texas Open 2026-04-02	DraftKings	Varsity v1	383.5	356.0	383.5	100.0%
Valero Texas Open 2026-04-02	FanDuel	Varsity v4	510.5	507.3	510.5	96.9%
Texas Children's Houston Open 2026-03-26	DraftKings	Varsity v2	534.5	388.0	534.5	99.3%
Texas Children's Houston Open 2026-03-26	FanDuel	Odds	507.7	384.1	507.7	99.3%
Valspar Championship 2026-03-19	DraftKings	Varsity v3	365.5	340.5	365.5	100.0%
Valspar Championship 2026-03-19	FanDuel	Top Projection	450.9	450.9	381.7	100.0%
THE PLAYERS Championship 2026-03-12	DraftKings	Top Projection	371.0	371.0	329.0	98.3%
THE PLAYERS Championship 2026-03-12	FanDuel	Top Projection	410.5	410.5	410.5	98.3%
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard 2026-03-05	FanDuel	Top Projection	370.0	370.0	342.1	100.0%
Cognizant Classic 2026-02-26	DraftKings	Varsity v1	451.5	420.0	451.5	100.0%
Cognizant Classic 2026-02-26	FanDuel	Odds	396.4	302.3	375.7	100.0%
The Genesis Invitational 2026-02-19	DraftKings	Varsity v1	481.5	481.0	481.5	100.0%
The Genesis Invitational 2026-02-19	FanDuel	Varsity v1	540.7	415.7	540.7	100.0%