Golf 2026 Model Validation

Backtesting Report

A summary-only validation report for completed DraftKings and FanDuel golf slates, now including the latest DraftKings and FanDuel model runs. Built to show what won, what was stable, and where the risk guardrails added signal. Varsity Pivot is the zero-overlap Varsity alternative when present.

Generated Jun 30, 2026, 10:55 PMDK and FD shown separately

Sample

Completed slates

Coverage

17 / 17

DK / FD slates

Skipped

No excluded selections

Avg Field

~110

Matched players

Executive Verdict

DraftKings is led by Pivot 0.86, FanDuel is led by Top Projection, and Top Projection remains the baseline for transparent slate-by-slate grading.

DraftKings

Pivot 0.86

17 slates

Avg Points: 442.29
vs Baseline: +28.26
Median: 442.3

Top Projection averaged 0.76 risky players per lineup on DraftKings; the winning model averaged 0.00.

FanDuel

Top Projection

17 slates

Avg Points: 411.02
vs Baseline: 0.00
Median: 410.5

Top Projection averaged 0.47 risky players per lineup on FanDuel; the winning model averaged 0.47.

Key Takeaways

Executive Read

DK Pivot 0.86 leads the slate sample

Pivot 0.86 leads DraftKings at 442.29 average points, +28.26 versus Top Projection, with 5.00 made cuts per slate.

FD Top Projection leads the slate sample

Top Projection leads FanDuel at 411.02 average points, 0.00 versus Top Projection, with 5.12 made cuts per slate.

Apex keeps the guardrails intact

Apex averaged 0.0 risky players on DraftKings and 0.0 on FanDuel while remaining in the expanded DK model table.

Risk remains expensive

Risk-tagged field players scored 10.5 fewer points and made the cut 17.0pp less often.

Profile Scores

Recent scored report profiles from final scoring artifacts. These rows update from the live scoring pipeline.

8 rows

DraftKings

Event	Profile	Score	Lineups
Wyndham Championship 2026-08-06	Top Projection	100.0	1
The Open Championship 2026-07-16	Varsity	100.0	1
Travelers Championship 2026-06-25	Top Projection	100.0	1
Travelers Championship 2026-06-25	Top Projection	100.0	1

FanDuel

Event	Profile	Score	Lineups
Wyndham Championship 2026-08-06	Top Projection	100.0	1
The Open Championship 2026-07-16	Top Projection	100.0	1
Travelers Championship 2026-06-25	Top Projection	100.0	1
Travelers Championship 2026-06-25	Top Projection	100.0	1

Model Scorecards

Site Results

Top Projection is retained as the baseline. Varsity lanes are compared on points, ceiling, floor, median slate, cut stability, top-20 pressure, and risk exposure.

DraftKings Scorecard

Pivot 0.86 leads across 17 evaluated slates at +28.26 versus Top Projection. All 15 scored models are displayed.

17 slates

Model	Wins	Top 3	Avg	High	Low	Median	vs Top	Made Cuts	Top 20s	Risky
Pivot 0.86Winner	3	8	442.3	596.0	287.0	442.3	+28.3	5.00	2.33	0.00
Varsity Pivot	2	5	440.3	552.5	355.5	440.3	+26.2	5.00	2.40	0.53
Top ProjectionBaseline	2	7	414.0	531.5	283.5	414.0	0.0	4.88	2.29	0.76
Varsity Sharp	2	6	409.4	609.0	212.0	409.4	-4.7	4.59	2.29	0.00
High Leverage (Beta)	0	1	408.3	521.0	278.5	408.3	-5.7	4.83	1.75	0.08
Varsity v1	2	5	406.6	548.5	262.5	406.6	-7.5	4.88	2.24	0.06
Odds	2	2	401.1	573.5	241.0	401.1	-12.9	4.65	2.41	0.12
Ceiling Value	1	5	400.2	548.5	199.5	400.2	-13.8	4.65	2.06	0.18
Odds v1	2	4	399.3	509.5	258.0	399.3	-14.7	4.59	2.24	1.29
FD Overlay	2	5	398.9	561.0	241.0	398.9	-15.2	4.65	2.24	0.41
Varsity v2	2	5	398.9	561.0	241.0	398.9	-15.2	4.65	2.24	0.41
Varsity v4	0	5	395.8	574.5	175.5	395.8	-18.2	4.65	2.29	0.41
Varsity v3	0	6	393.0	574.5	175.5	393.0	-21.1	4.53	2.18	0.41
Apex (Beta)	1	2	388.1	561.0	287.0	388.1	-25.9	4.75	2.17	0.00
Pivot Upside	0	1	369.0	467.5	298.0	369.0	-45.0	4.38	1.50	0.00

Pivot 0.86

Weekly scorecard wins

Winner

Wins: 3
Top 3: 8
Avg: 442.3
vs Top: +28.3
Risky: 0.00

High: 596.0
Low: 287.0
Median: 442.3

Varsity Pivot

Weekly scorecard wins

Wins: 2
Top 3: 5
Avg: 440.3
vs Top: +26.2
Risky: 0.53

High: 552.5
Low: 355.5
Median: 440.3

Top Projection

Baseline model

Wins: 2
Top 3: 7
Avg: 414.0
vs Top: 0.0
Risky: 0.76

High: 531.5
Low: 283.5
Median: 414.0

Varsity Sharp

Weekly scorecard wins

Wins: 2
Top 3: 6
Avg: 409.4
vs Top: -4.7
Risky: 0.00

High: 609.0
Low: 212.0
Median: 409.4

High Leverage (Beta)

Weekly scorecard wins

Wins: 0
Top 3: 1
Avg: 408.3
vs Top: -5.7
Risky: 0.08

High: 521.0
Low: 278.5
Median: 408.3

Varsity v1

Weekly scorecard wins

Wins: 2
Top 3: 5
Avg: 406.6
vs Top: -7.5
Risky: 0.06

High: 548.5
Low: 262.5
Median: 406.6

Odds

Weekly scorecard wins

Wins: 2
Top 3: 2
Avg: 401.1
vs Top: -12.9
Risky: 0.12

High: 573.5
Low: 241.0
Median: 401.1

Ceiling Value

Weekly scorecard wins

Wins: 1
Top 3: 5
Avg: 400.2
vs Top: -13.8
Risky: 0.18

High: 548.5
Low: 199.5
Median: 400.2

Odds v1

Weekly scorecard wins

Wins: 2
Top 3: 4
Avg: 399.3
vs Top: -14.7
Risky: 1.29

High: 509.5
Low: 258.0
Median: 399.3

FD Overlay

Weekly scorecard wins

Wins: 2
Top 3: 5
Avg: 398.9
vs Top: -15.2
Risky: 0.41

High: 561.0
Low: 241.0
Median: 398.9

Varsity v2

Weekly scorecard wins

Wins: 2
Top 3: 5
Avg: 398.9
vs Top: -15.2
Risky: 0.41

High: 561.0
Low: 241.0
Median: 398.9

Varsity v4

Weekly scorecard wins

Wins: 0
Top 3: 5
Avg: 395.8
vs Top: -18.2
Risky: 0.41

High: 574.5
Low: 175.5
Median: 395.8

Varsity v3

Weekly scorecard wins

Wins: 0
Top 3: 6
Avg: 393.0
vs Top: -21.1
Risky: 0.41

High: 574.5
Low: 175.5
Median: 393.0

Apex (Beta)

Weekly scorecard wins

Wins: 1
Top 3: 2
Avg: 388.1
vs Top: -25.9
Risky: 0.00

High: 561.0
Low: 287.0
Median: 388.1

Pivot Upside

Weekly scorecard wins

Wins: 0
Top 3: 1
Avg: 369.0
vs Top: -45.0
Risky: 0.00

High: 467.5
Low: 298.0
Median: 369.0

FanDuel Scorecard

Top Projection leads across 17 evaluated slates at 0.00 versus Top Projection. All 7 scored models are displayed.

17 slates

Model	Wins	Top 2	Avg	High	Low	Median	vs Top	Made Cuts	Top 20s	Risky
Top ProjectionWinnerBaseline	4	9	411.0	632.5	208.6	410.5	0.0	5.12	2.41	0.47
Varsity v2	6	9	399.1	648.0	104.3	415.5	-11.9	4.88	2.35	0.29
Apex (Beta)	4	8	397.2	548.5	0.0	402.9	-13.8	5.00	2.06	0.00
Odds	5	9	396.8	576.8	181.5	390.7	-14.2	5.00	2.18	0.12
Varsity v1	1	4	389.8	570.4	205.4	384.4	-21.2	5.00	2.18	0.00
Varsity v4	2	5	385.7	532.3	150.7	387.1	-25.4	4.94	1.94	0.00
Varsity v3	5	6	376.3	605.4	155.5	383.2	-34.8	4.65	2.41	0.47

Top Projection

Baseline model

Winner

Wins: 4
Top 2: 9
Avg: 411.0
vs Top: 0.0
Risky: 0.47

High: 632.5
Low: 208.6
Median: 410.5

Varsity v2

Weekly scorecard wins

Wins: 6
Top 2: 9
Avg: 399.1
vs Top: -11.9
Risky: 0.29

High: 648.0
Low: 104.3
Median: 415.5

Apex (Beta)

Weekly scorecard wins

Wins: 4
Top 2: 8
Avg: 397.2
vs Top: -13.8
Risky: 0.00

High: 548.5
Low: 0.0
Median: 402.9

Odds

Weekly scorecard wins

Wins: 5
Top 2: 9
Avg: 396.8
vs Top: -14.2
Risky: 0.12

High: 576.8
Low: 181.5
Median: 390.7

Varsity v1

Weekly scorecard wins

Wins: 1
Top 2: 4
Avg: 389.8
vs Top: -21.2
Risky: 0.00

High: 570.4
Low: 205.4
Median: 384.4

Varsity v4

Weekly scorecard wins

Wins: 2
Top 2: 5
Avg: 385.7
vs Top: -25.4
Risky: 0.00

High: 532.3
Low: 150.7
Median: 387.1

Varsity v3

Weekly scorecard wins

Wins: 5
Top 2: 6
Avg: 376.3
vs Top: -34.8
Risky: 0.47

High: 605.4
Low: 155.5
Median: 383.2

Event History

DK Event History

Toggle models to compare event-by-event actual points.

Event	Pivot 0.86	Varsity Pivot	Top Projection	Varsity Sharp	High Leverage (Beta)	Varsity v1	Odds	Ceiling Value	Odds v1	FD Overlay	Varsity v2	Varsity v4	Varsity v3	Apex (Beta)	Pivot Upside
17 Travelers Championship Travelers · 2026-06-25	0.0	468.0	515.5	609.0	521.0	504.5	517.5	521.0	509.5	548.5	548.5	574.5	574.5	0.0	0.0
16 U.S. Open U.S. Open · 2026-06-18	0.0	0.0	285.0	212.5	0.0	275.0	255.5	271.0	274.0	287.0	287.0	235.5	235.5	287.0	0.0
15 RBC Canadian Open RBC Canadian Open · 2026-06-11	287.0	441.5	422.5	467.0	354.0	408.5	573.5	357.5	490.5	471.5	471.5	415.5	415.5	371.5	0.0
14 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday Memorial Tournament presented by Workday · 2026-06-04	0.0	369.5	370.0	212.0	380.5	449.0	367.5	389.0	258.0	323.0	323.0	391.5	391.5	323.0	0.0
13 Charles Schwab Challenge Charles Schwab Challenge · 2026-05-28	414.5	449.0	411.5	363.0	343.0	335.5	397.5	326.0	452.0	322.0	322.0	382.5	322.0	322.0	442.0
12 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson CJ CUP Byron Nelson · 2026-05-21	596.0	552.5	493.5	557.0	519.5	548.5	411.0	548.5	470.0	561.0	561.0	481.0	561.0	561.0	0.0
11 PGA Championship PGA · 2026-05-14	0.0	0.0	369.0	392.0	278.5	262.5	355.5	210.5	289.0	354.5	354.5	363.0	363.0	354.5	0.0
10 Truist Championship Truist · 2026-05-07	443.5	395.5	517.5	405.0	0.0	436.5	394.5	404.0	395.5	417.5	417.5	380.5	380.5	394.5	381.5
9 Cadillac Championship Cadillac · 2026-04-30	0.0	435.0	482.5	482.0	468.5	467.0	434.5	479.0	487.5	441.0	441.0	484.5	484.5	0.0	0.0
8 RBC Heritage RBC Heritage · 2026-04-16	482.0	475.0	531.5	442.5	0.0	486.0	474.0	515.0	470.0	492.0	492.0	516.0	516.0	492.0	467.5
7 Masters Tournament Masters Tournament · 2026-04-09	394.0	394.0	283.5	392.5	0.0	458.5	363.0	418.5	363.0	283.5	283.5	363.5	363.5	363.0	0.0
6 Valero Texas Open Valero Texas Open · 2026-04-02	506.0	538.0	356.0	383.5	410.5	334.5	373.5	385.0	354.5	373.5	373.5	373.5	373.5	373.5	371.0
5 Texas Children's Houston Open Texas Children's Houston Open · 2026-03-26	470.0	433.5	388.0	452.0	425.5	457.0	355.5	457.0	355.5	419.5	419.5	432.0	432.0	0.0	298.0
4 Valspar Championship Valspar · 2026-03-19	392.5	355.5	340.5	322.5	0.0	347.5	241.0	199.5	372.0	241.0	241.0	175.5	175.5	0.0	326.5
3 THE PLAYERS Championship PLAYERS · 2026-03-12	449.0	368.0	371.0	416.0	381.5	335.0	477.0	397.0	399.0	477.0	477.0	371.0	371.0	371.0	0.0
2 Cognizant Classic Cognizant · 2026-02-26	425.0	481.0	420.0	359.5	399.0	373.0	383.5	397.5	374.5	324.0	324.0	378.5	378.5	0.0	325.0
1 The Genesis Invitational Genesis · 2026-02-19	448.0	448.0	481.0	491.0	418.0	433.0	444.0	528.0	473.5	444.0	444.0	410.0	342.5	444.0	340.5

FD Event History

Toggle models to compare event-by-event actual points.

Event	Top Projection	Varsity v2	Apex (Beta)	Odds	Varsity v1	Varsity v4	Varsity v3
17 Travelers Championship Travelers · 2026-06-25	632.5	648.0	548.5	550.9	561.9	495.7	605.4
16 U.S. Open U.S. Open · 2026-06-18	208.6	104.3	111.3	181.5	205.4	150.7	155.5
15 RBC Canadian Open RBC Canadian Open · 2026-06-11	503.8	460.6	478.7	372.8	425.7	460.1	352.5
14 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday Memorial Tournament presented by Workday · 2026-06-04	381.1	273.1	309.1	295.4	379.2	305.8	407.3
13 Charles Schwab Challenge Charles Schwab Challenge · 2026-05-28	430.2	460.5	460.5	435.1	357.3	460.5	460.5
12 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson CJ CUP Byron Nelson · 2026-05-21	479.7	457.7	457.7	576.8	460.8	457.7	515.1
11 PGA Championship PGA · 2026-05-14	310.3	351.0	0.0	307.4	345.7	340.2	383.2
10 Truist Championship Truist · 2026-05-07	471.7	415.5	476.2	476.2	412.3	415.5	470.2
9 Cadillac Championship Cadillac · 2026-04-30	550.1	513.0	497.2	497.2	570.4	532.3	455.6
8 Masters Tournament Masters Tournament · 2026-04-09	361.7	455.0	387.1	426.6	424.2	387.1	350.0
7 Valero Texas Open Valero Texas Open · 2026-04-02	478.7	519.7	519.7	519.7	354.6	519.7	519.7
6 Texas Children's Houston Open Texas Children's Houston Open · 2026-03-26	342.4	464.3	464.3	338.0	438.3	359.5	251.2
5 Valspar Championship Valspar · 2026-03-19	424.4	340.0	340.0	340.0	298.8	340.0	264.9
4 THE PLAYERS Championship PLAYERS · 2026-03-12	410.5	390.7	390.7	390.7	387.2	326.3	299.2
3 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard · 2026-03-05	340.3	312.4	312.4	312.4	353.4	312.4	413.0
2 Cognizant Classic Cognizant · 2026-02-26	265.6	204.3	199.4	311.1	267.8	289.8	209.6
1 The Genesis Invitational Genesis · 2026-02-19	395.8	414.6	402.9	414.6	384.4	402.9	283.4

What the Backtest Shows

DraftKings Pivot 0.86 finished +28.26 points over Top Projection in the expanded model set.

FanDuel Top Projection finished 0.00 points versus Top Projection with the best site-level average in the refreshed sample.

The report is intentionally site-specific: DK and FD can have different winners while each model is still judged against the same baseline, risk, and slate-audit standards.

Featured Slate Proof

Largest Varsity vs baseline swings

DraftKings

Valero Texas Open

2026-04-02

+182.0

Winner

Varsity Pivot

Best Varsity

538.0

Baseline

356.0

DraftKings

Masters Tournament

2026-04-09

+175.0

Winner

Varsity v1

Best Varsity

458.5

Baseline

283.5

FanDuel

Texas Children's Houston Open

2026-03-26

+121.9

Winner

Varsity v2

Best Varsity

464.3

Baseline

342.4

DraftKings

THE PLAYERS Championship

2026-03-12

+106.0

Winner

Tie

Best Varsity

477.0

Baseline

371.0

DraftKings Risk

Risk-tagged field players scored 13.0 fewer points on average and made the cut 18.7 percentage points less often.

Non-risky made-cut rate70.5%

Risky made-cut rate56.9%

Baseline Risky

0.76

Zero-Risk Varsity

Point Gap

-13.0

FanDuel Risk

Risk-tagged field players scored 8.0 fewer points on average and made the cut 15.3 percentage points less often.

Non-risky made-cut rate68.0%

Risky made-cut rate52.7%

Baseline Risky

0.47

Zero-Risk Varsity

Point Gap

-8.0

Slate Audit Log

Complete event-level summary for transparency. Player-level lineups and risk reasons remain excluded from the public bundle.

34 rows

Event	Site	Winner	Winner	Top Projection	Best Varsity	Coverage
Travelers Championship 2026-06-25	DraftKings	Varsity Sharp	609.0	515.5	609.0	100.0%
Travelers Championship 2026-06-25	FanDuel	Varsity v2	648.0	632.5	648.0	100.0%
U.S. Open 2026-06-18	DraftKings	Tie	287.0	285.0	287.0	99.4%
U.S. Open 2026-06-18	FanDuel	Top Projection	208.6	208.6	205.4	100.0%
RBC Canadian Open 2026-06-11	DraftKings	Odds	573.5	422.5	471.5	98.0%
RBC Canadian Open 2026-06-11	FanDuel	Top Projection	503.8	503.8	478.7	100.0%
the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday 2026-06-04	DraftKings	Varsity v1	449.0	370.0	449.0	100.0%
the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday 2026-06-04	FanDuel	Varsity v3	407.3	381.1	407.3	100.0%
Charles Schwab Challenge 2026-05-28	DraftKings	Odds v1	452.0	411.5	449.0	100.0%
Charles Schwab Challenge 2026-05-28	FanDuel	Varsity v2	460.5	430.2	460.5	100.0%
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson 2026-05-21	DraftKings	Pivot 0.86	596.0	493.5	596.0	100.0%
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson 2026-05-21	FanDuel	Odds	576.8	479.7	515.1	100.0%
PGA Championship 2026-05-14	DraftKings	Varsity Sharp	392.0	369.0	392.0	100.0%
PGA Championship 2026-05-14	FanDuel	Varsity v3	383.2	310.3	383.2	100.0%
Truist Championship 2026-05-07	DraftKings	Top Projection	517.5	517.5	443.5	98.6%
Truist Championship 2026-05-07	FanDuel	Odds	476.2	471.7	476.2	98.5%
Cadillac Championship 2026-04-30	DraftKings	Odds v1	487.5	482.5	484.5	98.6%
Cadillac Championship 2026-04-30	FanDuel	Varsity v1	570.4	550.1	570.4	98.4%
RBC Heritage 2026-04-16	DraftKings	Top Projection	531.5	531.5	516.0	100.0%
Masters Tournament 2026-04-09	DraftKings	Varsity v1	458.5	283.5	458.5	100.0%
Masters Tournament 2026-04-09	FanDuel	Varsity v2	455.0	361.7	455.0	100.0%
Valero Texas Open 2026-04-02	DraftKings	Varsity Pivot	538.0	356.0	538.0	100.0%
Valero Texas Open 2026-04-02	FanDuel	Varsity v2	519.7	478.7	519.7	99.1%
Texas Children's Houston Open 2026-03-26	DraftKings	Pivot 0.86	470.0	388.0	470.0	99.3%
Texas Children's Houston Open 2026-03-26	FanDuel	Varsity v2	464.3	342.4	464.3	100.0%
Valspar Championship 2026-03-19	DraftKings	Pivot 0.86	392.5	340.5	392.5	100.0%
Valspar Championship 2026-03-19	FanDuel	Top Projection	424.4	424.4	340.0	100.0%
THE PLAYERS Championship 2026-03-12	DraftKings	Tie	477.0	371.0	477.0	98.3%
THE PLAYERS Championship 2026-03-12	FanDuel	Top Projection	410.5	410.5	390.7	100.0%
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard 2026-03-05	FanDuel	Varsity v3	413.0	340.3	413.0	100.0%
Cognizant Classic 2026-02-26	DraftKings	Varsity Pivot	481.0	420.0	481.0	100.0%
Cognizant Classic 2026-02-26	FanDuel	Odds	311.1	265.6	289.8	100.0%
The Genesis Invitational 2026-02-19	DraftKings	Ceiling Value	528.0	481.0	491.0	100.0%
The Genesis Invitational 2026-02-19	FanDuel	Varsity v2	414.6	395.8	414.6	100.0%